[StellarWind]

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I don't follow this exactly. What's the problem if we bet first on the turn, get raised and thereby have an easy fold?

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Just to recap, we are discussing 3-betting the flop and leading the turn when a brick hits.

I doubt that there is any direct value in a flop 3-bet as I think our pot equity is below 1/3 after UTG raises the flop and MP calls two cold. Pot equity includes our highly unfavorable out situation and not just our chance of having the best hand now. So offhand I don't feel like reraising the flop in the first place.

On to the turn action. The first good thing about checking instead of betting is it might come back two bets and allow you to make a cheap fold. This will happen a lot because MP will often have the ten or 88 for his flop action and now he is going to pounce.

The next issue is pot size. If you 3-bet the flop and bet the turn there will be 16 BB in the pot when you get yourself raised. By bet-folding instead of check-calling you have sacrificed your two outs which are worth 5% of that pot. That's an EV cost of about 0.8 BB even though the fold is correct.

Plus bet-folding opens the door to folding the best hand causing a gigantic loss.

The argument in favor of betting the turn is that once in a while it will check through when we have the best hand and perhaps an 80% chance of winning. I don't expect that to happen very often because the initiative does not lie on the button.