Re: Q8
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oops. 4.1% Dude, basic out calculation is Outs * 2 * cards to come = %it will come.
On the flop an out is worth about 4.5% (this method undervalues few outs and overvalues many)
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You're wrong. 4.1% is correct, but you've already accounted for the fact that there are two cards to come by multiplying by 47 then 46. There is no need to divide by two. You have ~1.9 b/d flush outs if they are all clean. Your method is valid if that correction has not already been made, for example calculating for KQ on a 942 flop vs 55. In that instances you'd divide the total chance of it coming by the river by 2 to get your outs, since there are no running combos to account for that cannot be simply divided by 45 like "normal" outs. If that doesn't make sense, think of it this way: you have a 10/47 chance (~21%) of picking up 9 outs. Do you see how this is different from "normal" outs like the KQ example?
In theory we're kind of arguing semantics, since you know the probability of it coming. Whatever lingo you choose to transpose that into is fine as long as you don't apply it incorrectly somewhere along the way. In this case, though, you are.
GoT
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