Re: A Hand
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So, as uncomfortable as it makes me, I really kind of think the best play on this flop is to fold.
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WD:
I was just speaking with another 2+2er on this hand. He suggested the same.
However, I should have included this in the post. The player here I know. He does very funny over-agro things at times. Is this one? I don't know.
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My basic point is that if I'm going any further with the hand I want a very good reason to. We're not getting great odds to call down (I think it's like 4 to 1 or something) and we're giving reverse implied odds. We are rarely far ahead when ahead, and are totally crushed when behind.
A quick calculation:
Let's say on average our equity when ahead is like 60%. When behind it's like 5%. Let's say we need 20% equity to call down.
So we have:
.6x + (1-x).05 > .2
.55x > .15
x > 28% or whatever...
I think to comfortable we need to say we're ahead about a third of the time to call down here... Whether we are or not I'll leave up to your judgment of the player.
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