[mrbaseball]

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predictable amateur action

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Actually I think the only way to beat NFL is by fading the public. But... I don't think that's all that reliable. I think the market is so efficient with so much money involved that it is basically a coinflip and that the public will likely correct as often as they are wrong.

Those "predictable" amateurs have been winning for the past few weeks even though they started slowly this season.

I'm glad you like NFL capping and are successful at it. I know I never could be. I just think there is too much money making the lines "correct" and too much parity in the league with no way to predict the funny bounces and no way for those funny bounces to ever equal out.

In a sport like baseball you have a zillion games to equal out the fluke plays and a real history and track record for each team. Plus it is much more thinly bet making for many "incorrect" lines. I think the way I think about and approach baseball wagering makes the NFL betting look impossible to me.