[W. Deranged]

This is not a pleasant situation.

Basically, a taggish 17/10/2.5 is not check-raising this flop and checking the turn. If he is, we want to bet again anyway. So calling here we basically know we're probably getting bet into on the turn. So if we're calling here it's for one of these reasons:

1. Because we think we have odds to improve on the turn and can fold unimproved.

2. We're committed to going to showdown.

Against a better K we have like 2.6 outs discounted or something. Against a flush we're drawing dead. 92 is not a possibility. Against a set we're drawing near dead.

So we have like no outs against any real hand.

So if we continue to the turn, it must be because:

2. We're committed to going to showdown.

This basically means we think that this is a bluff (almost certainly a semi-bluff with a big [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]) often enough to continue on. A good villain like that is simply never calling out of the SB here with a weaker K. If he has a K I think we're beat like 95% of the time.

If villain had a big enough [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (like the A) I would actually expect him to bet often and try to trap the bad players for value on his nut draw. He might check-raise sometimes for outs cleaning but check-raising is hardly obvious, and, in my opinion, the less likely play for a tag with a good [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] draw.

So basically, I don't like committing to showdown either.


So, as uncomfortable as it makes me, I really kind of think the best play on this flop is to fold.