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Old 12-07-2005, 05:44 PM
StellarWind StellarWind is offline
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Join Date: Feb 2004
Posts: 704
Default Re: Making him fold a better hand

You're in a lot of trouble here.

1. You cannot get KK/QQ out because he can put you on something like JJ/99/77 for your preflop 3-bet. You are behind absolutely everything he "should" have except case JJ. You are also behind a ton of other stuff that he "could" have like lower aces, any ten, and snowmen. 23/11 players don't speculate a lot preflop. To respond to another poster, a 50/11 might have some odd PFRs here, but a 23/11 is playing from a (possibly mental) chart and will usually have exactly what you expect.

2. MP has coldcalled twice and will have you beat a ton of the time.

3. There are two flush draws, multiple straight draws, and KQ overcards (likely contained within primary draws) still to be concerned about. You will lose a large percentage of the hands where you are currently ahead. Meanwhile you hope you have two outs but you might not.

I really think you need to stop investing in this situation. How can it be profitable to pay another 2BB+ in trying to pick up this pot? I would check and see what happens next. If it goes bet-call or check-bet you should probably lay this down. You will be wrong once in a while but that's the way it goes. Even if you want to call the turn that still is much better than betting out and having it come back two or three bets as it often will. Remember this is the street where MP will declare his hand. You should see what he does before you make your decision.

Regarding the flop, your pot equity is not so hot after it comes back two bets coldcalled. I agree with the call so that you can act after MP on the turn instead of being in the awkward position of betting out and usually getting raised when you are beat.
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