[phish]

Yeah, this is incorrect. for example for someone with a winrate of 1.5/100 and std dev 18/100, the max downswing is under 500 and max breakeven stretch is about 130K hands.

To do this in excel set up the following columns:

1. # of hands (by increments of 100)
2. expectation (multiply column 1 by winrate (1.5 or 2 or whatever)
3. variance (multiply column 1 by 324) The variance is the square of the std dev, so if std dev is 18, variance is
18*18=324. You could substitute some other std dev assumption.
4. std dev = square root of column 3
5. 3 std dev downswing = column 2-(3 x column 4). This is your expectation minus a 3 std dev downswing.

Then simply copy the formula straight down the column and you'll see that column 5 grows (more negative) but after a certain point becomes positive. The largest negative number is your max downswing and the number of hands it takes to be positive tells your max breakeven period.