[phish]

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You should not have been in the hand to begin with, however, you should not have bet the river if you played it this far. I have played many hours with Liz. She has you creamed 99% in this spot. She will just payoff with a hand like a little stonger than yours on the river. This is a horrible bet and even worse to payoff.

Good Luck,
Terri

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given he bet and liz, how much better/worse is a 3 bet than a call?

Barron

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A three bet here screams great strength or great weakness. The play of the hand up till now is not consistent with strength, so the more logical conclusion is weakness. Unless she wasn't thinking clearly that day, she should be calling any hand that beats his (tho she may call w/ AK also).

And I believe her raise was one of those combo value/bluff bets, where you may a small percentage of the time bluff out a slightly better hand, but a significant % of the time be betting the best hand. And people usually smart enough to make plays like that also tend to be smart/suspicious enough to guard against them.

Now of course, if her image of BK was that he's a complete timid nit who is playing way above his comfort zone, she may fold. But it's just hard to think what she could reasonable put him on that she could fold. A complete timid nit wouldn't three-bet middle pair here, and would probably be too afraid of the flush to even three-bet trip jacks.

Everyone has brain-freezes every now and then, but unless she decides to have one at that moment, it just doesn't seem like a fold is likely.