Re: Newbie PLO question - Do I fold the nuts here?
I disagree.
You should not assume the freeroll (since I think set+flush is reasonably probable here). You should weigh
1. Set+flush => smallish -EV
2. Freeroll or strong domination => large +EV
and conclude that the total is +EV (for reasonable probabilities).
This means that a fold is out of the question. I dont think that the decision between call and push is trivially simple, though.
About the set+flush possibility: The reason I put a high probability on this is that a checkraise on just the wheel with no additional draws would be stupid. (Stupid opponents are fairly common at those limits, but so are reasonable opponents, and the OP read the opponent as "tight").
Also, I did not read this as a bad beat story.
That would be: "I was outdrawn! Poor me!" (which is a stupid attitude in PLO)
The OP I read more as: "I pushed my money in with the worse hand. Did I screw up?"
I dont think I have anything more to add to this thread, really.
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