[DcifrThs]

ive thought about this hand quite a bit and heres what ive come to...

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8 handed. I've been playing for an hour or two and haven't won any pots. I've played a decent amount of them and it just hasn't been going my way.

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this is going to encourage people to take shots. everybody notices this. everybody.

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I raise black 4's utg+1, liz lieu (sp?) 3 bets 2 spots later. I don't know that much about her game other than schneids says he's pretty sure she plays pretty well and that she often plays big like 400/800. We haven't banged heads yet though.I call.

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thats good (useful) information, how did schneids get it? (did he play a few hands w/ her or a lot fo hands ? or through 2nd sources?)

we've been over 44 8 handed. mistake. you know it. no biggie...id rate the EV[wussy hug]<EV[raising black 4s in EP].

i also think your personal utility (u) is U(EV[wussy hug])<<<<U(EV[raising black 4s in EP])

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flop J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

I check she bets, I call.

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this i honestly like. i would consider check raising... though, if i had made the mistake to raise black 4s utg and get 3bet by a player noticing that nothings gone my way i probably would have been thinking "ok no reason to outplay yourself, you can clearly still be ahead here and this one pretty much needs to see a showdown unless an A/K hit. so call"

yes i talkt o myself, we've been over this.

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turn 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

I check, she bets, I call.

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same analysis above

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river J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

I bet, she raises and it feels kinda weak, I?

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this is where i would go with your weak feeling. normally, i like to argue w/ mikey for the sake of it...and because it might result in a +EV OMG HUHUHUHUHU OMGOMGOMG :P, but here he is dead on. this river is a 3bet, followed by a call, followed by a fold. in fact, i think this is one place where eric's triple would be of good use (though i still dont know if the triple is in constant time or if the other repititions are assuming the same situation after opponent has knowledge of yoru choice this time).

you know what she knows but she would have to be a psychic to know HOW you feel and think about what you both know b/c she presumably hasn't seen you play in the state you're in. in fact, id consider 3betting and showing if she folds. this will DEFINATELY back her off and you have to then immediately change gears, but this hand is a crucial one in the point in the game where you have to get people off your back if you want to play for some time afterwards.

re: the JAsucker debate... i can't remember his posts in these threads so i'll go through them later but usually he knows very much what do to in general and has been beating the games for some time. if [censored] ray zee picks him for a limit team i will ALWAYS and i mean ALWAYS listen carefully to what he has to say. ray zee is my idol and JA gets an open ear and mind...that doesn't mean i wont disagree w/ him, just that he gets an open respectful ear. i'll be sure to quote if i agree or disagree with his thoughts on these particular hands (limit games have changed over the years and this may affect some of the advice of long time pros).

[EDIT]: i forgot to deal with the actual river bet decision. betting this river encourages a raise. what do you have that you play pf raise/call. flop check call. turn check call. river bet on a top pair pairing 3flush board?

that to me looks exactly like a pair below jacks that is betting into AQ/AK for value. if she can't beat that pair or she can beat that pair she'll raise, but given it feels weak she may be able to beat some pairs but not others. its the weak feeling you get from her that should give you cause to pause and reflect for a moment and then 3bet b/c you can't beat any of those pairs but she folds them immediately.

well, sorry for the long post, but like i said, ive been thinking about this hand for a little bit.

Barron