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Old 12-07-2005, 10:50 AM
MattiasL MattiasL is offline
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Join Date: Feb 2005
Posts: 8
Default Re: Newbie PLO question - Do I fold the nuts here?

You are right that the straight is somewhat vulnerable here, but you should not underestimate your hand.

You are ahead of every probable hand except set + better flush draw (A freerolling straight + better flush is not probable). This is a real danger after the checkraise, but there are alternative holdings like the straight (improbable since he should be afraid of giving free cards) or AA without the draw.

Since the 6 of hearts is an additional straight flush out for you, you have 45% equity against most set+flush hands (and 40% when he holds the 6). Combine this with your dominating position against a bare set or non-flush straight hand and you have good combined expectation even if set + draw probability is estimated to 70-80%. Pushing should definitely be +EV.

The alternative is calling with the option of folding if the turn pairs the board or the flush comes in and the opponent pushes. This may have better EV against a predictable opponent. Note that there are some problems with this approach:
1. You risk making a big mistake and fold the better hand.
2. You do not extract the maximum from a worse straight hand.

Pushing seems the standard, easy way.
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