Correction:
I wrote originally that 195 of the 990 possible two-card combinations for the turn and river make Hero the nut low.
I just re-tabulated and got 219. I must have transcribed a number wrong the first time or punched a number into my calculator incorrectly or somthing. I should have checked it more carefully yesterday before posting.
At any rate today I get 219 as the total number of possible two-card combinations for the turn and river than enable the nut low for Hero. I’ve checked the 219 a bunch of times, so that I think 219 is correct.
Thus I think the correct odds against Hero making the nut low are 771 to 219, or about seven to two, rather than about four to one.
My apologies for my error. Hope I’ve finally got it correct.
Doesn’t make much of a difference in terms of the final conclusion drawn (that Hero doesn’t have favorable odds to draw for a back-door low). But drawing for runner-runner low is not quite as bad as I represented it yesterday.
Again, my apologies for the error.
Buzz
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