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Old 12-07-2005, 02:31 AM
GrekeHaus GrekeHaus is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: Zoidberg, for THREE!
Posts: 314
Default Re: Riddle me this...

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Sample too small? I don't like hearing this response because it means that if I get a bigger one my ROI will magically shoot up. I don't want to keep throwing my money away.

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This seems like you're having a common misconception about the law of large numbers here. The money is gone and any results from here on out are going to be completely independent of it. You may go on a hot streak, or you may not. You could even go on another one of these losing streaks.

Another thing to note is that standard error is proportional to the square of the sample size. This is why everyone always says that your sample size is too small.

For instance, how many tournaments do you think it takes to know your true ROI +/- 10%? I'm not exactly sure, but it's not that small of a number. Now suppose you want to know your true ROI +/- 1%. It will take 100 times as many tournaments to do this as it took to know your ROI within 10% (since you are trying to be 10x more accurate).

I think any good player on here has run bad for 200+ tournaments before. You may or may not be throwing your money away, but if you feel uncomfortable, you should probably move down, get your comfidence back and then give it another shot.
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