Re: Obsession with value bets (Warning: Long)
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Today I had a situation where the BB was 100, and I was dealt AQ in EP. I raise to 300. Only the BB calls. Then the flop comes--AAQ. There were 2 flush cards on the board. So I checked the flop and checked the turn, hoping that the third flush card would hit and possibly make his hand.
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This is flawed thinking, if he has a flush draw he's still going to call certain sized bets. Just because you got called down by K high this one time, doesnt mean betting a total of 1 BB with a flopped full house is correct. And although you think blanket statements should't be used, I will dare to go out on a limb and say that getting 1 BB in the pot post flop with the flopped nuts is never correct.
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good post. People really play spots like this backwards. Making someone pay to draw (when they are drawing dead, even better), is usally the highest EV line, as well as the most likely way to double when they hit their flush.
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