[Buzz]

Hi Tex - Try this:

Make four piles of chips.

Start each pile with two blue chips to represent the two small bets on the first betting round.

Next put three blue chips on three of the piles and three red chips on Hero's pile. These chips represent everybody's contribution on the second and third betting rounds, assuming a bet each round, no raises, and no folds.

Finally put four white chips on Hero's pile and four blue chips on the other three piles. These represent Hero being able to get in a double bet on the river with all three opponents calling.

Now stack Hero's pile on top of another pile and remove the four white chips from this pile. Hero has the three red chips of his own plus eleven blue chips. That's for the times he doesn't get quartered or sixthed.

Now put the four white chips back on top of Hero's pile and divide it into two equal piles. (When hero gets quartered, he only gets a quarter of the chips in the pot). Then again remove the four white chips from Hero's (fourth of the pot) pile. This time hero has the three red chips plus two blue chips. That's for the times Hero does get quartered. (We'll include getting sixthed with getting quarted and count them the same as getting quartered to keep it simple here).
***

Now
(1) make three stacks of eleven blue chips and two stacks of two blue chips, a grand total of 37 blue chips.
(2) Next, evenly divide them up into five piles. (Doesn't quite work, so make two of the five piles with an extra chip. No big deal.)
(3) Put three red chips on top of each pile.
The blue to red ratio represents Hero's implied pot odds after the flop, assuming Hero will split the low two times out of five, as is statistically expected.

Think Hero only splits low one time out of five? I don't, but fine. In that case make four stacks of eleven blue chips, one stack of two chips, and then divide the 46 chips evenly into five piles. (Again there will be one extra chip, so just make one pile on chip higher than the others). Now put three red chips on top of each pile. The blue to red ratio represents Hero's implied pot odds after the flop, assuming Hero will split the low one time out of five.

Looks to me like Hero is getting about three to one implied pot odds after the flop. And that's assuming Hero only has to split the low one time out of five, which, honestly, is low for a game of this looseness.

There is nothing tricky here (at least not intentionally). It's just straightforward reasoning, and probably giving the benefit of any doubt to Hero.

We could do it algebraically instead of graphically with the chips and it would work out about the same.

I don't care if I win this argument or not, Tex. If I'm wrong I sure hope you can show me how and straighten me out.

Otherwise, if I'm right, I hope I have straightened you out. I'm totally convinced that Hero doesn't have favorable odds to purely draw for low after a flop with only one low card.

And even if the betting had been capped on the first betting round, Hero still wouldn't have favorable odds to draw for low after this flop.

(But sometimes, as with this turn and river, or when you pull the handle of a low pay-off slot machine, you go against the odds and end up winning).

Thanks in advance for any corrections to my logic.

Regards,

Buzz