Re: QQ UTG vs. good players
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This is a tough spot!
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I agree.
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The truth is that BB can have a pretty wide range of hands here, since he is closing the action preflop and getting a good price to do so, so you can't automatically put him on a set.
Several hands that might make this bet that you beat are: 65, A5, A4, A3, 66
Several hands that have you beat are: A2,67, 55, 44, 33 45s, 34s
So it's time to narrow that hand range down a bit.
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To me, this is the hard part.
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The BB will have an excellent chance to checkraise and trap MP2 in if he slowplays the straight, so those two combinations are slightly less probable.
Sets are a possibility, but once again I think most players like to check-raise here with those.
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Even with 3 straight cards? I wouldn't want to give a free card to any hand containing a 6 or 2, which is fairly likely given the number of people in the pot - A6, A2, 66, 22.
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So that leaves the slightly more vulnerable two pair hands that would lead out like that, along with the pair+draw hands.
You've got a decent chance of catching up with two pair (25%) but you're not ahead THAT much of the pair+draw hands or OESD (66). With that in mind, I like to peel one off here and then put him all in on the turn as long as a scare card doesn't hit. If one does hit, I have no problem with folding, and if MP2 or SB happen to come along for the ride, I also have no problem folding to further aggression.
Edit: Also include in the hand range mid PPs like 88-JJ, all of which make a call here even more attractive.
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If you include these in his range, how do you know which cards are scary?
All of this thinking makes me a little wary of QQ here facing a pot sized bet. On top of that, there's a good player that has me covered left to act after me. That spells disaster to me.
We're facing two good opponents. When we're ahead, we're a little ahead. When we're behind, we're crushed. When we're ahead, we're not going to make much here. When we're behind, we're losing our stack.
Am I way off base here?
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