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Old 12-06-2005, 04:48 PM
wdeadwyler wdeadwyler is offline
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Join Date: Apr 2005
Posts: 172
Default Re: easy kk fold??? 3 to 1 on my money

[ QUOTE ]
75 out of 225 is not half my stack, im a 3.8 to 1 underdog to aa with jj i nthe hand. pot is giving me 3 to one to call. if i call 150 more from mp3's all in i put 75 into the main pot and 75 into the side pot. if i lose against aa but beat jj i win how much...... 150. its a break even bet with no positive expectation because thats all i can make from the side pot, so in other words to make money off the hand i have to beat the aa. i fold, keep 150, or call and beat jj and my stack stays at 150. if i cover the second all in i call imediatley. i dont think there is enough in the side pot to make the call. no one has touched on that yet. and if you think kk is not a hand to fold at 1-2 then you have some serious thinking to do. and its not about me being full of myself. i didnt post this to have anyone say good fold. i posted to see if anyone thinks that the line of thought given pot odds and resonable hands makes sense. to me it does, to others at the table it did, maybe to you it doesnt

[/ QUOTE ]

I thought you had 150, I see now you didnt, my mistake.

Folding KK at 1-2 live with <300bb without convincing evidence (which I do not feel is present) is a -EV decision that you are free to make , just know that the majority of respectable posters (which I may or may not be) disagree with the aforementioned decision. At some point you will do this, and villain will have 1010. I agree that if you could make UTG's hand range only AA then this is an easy fold, you cannot make this read. Your typical UTG has AKs, KK, AA, QQ, JJ, 1010, and maybe even some other random garbage here. Your KK is +EV against that range. I disagree with your analysis and conclusions. If you can demonstrate to me mathematically how sure you were here and then use the pot odds to prove your fold was good (please use hand ranges and pokerstove), then I MIGHT consider it, but as your posts so far stand, and what I perceive as your understanding of the game, I am extremely skeptical.

Edited: I agree you do not call to chop, but nothing about your reads indicates that you are chopping here x% of the time (I do not know how to carry out the proper analysis here) and that this fold is right against villains hand range (based on your reads). Please enlighten me.
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