Re: Turn call?
i think a Q or K on this river would be good about a 1/3 of the time, so your 6 outter is really only a 2 outter.
so in essence you have a 6 outter getting 7:1 odds which is just slightly profitable.
assuming you go by the guide that your Q or K is only good 1/3 of the time that means the opponent will bet his ace the other 2/3 times when you connect your gutshot. sometimes hell also just fire through the river on a continuation bluff, so well say your implied odds for hitting a gutshot is 2BB.
when you connect your Q or K, because your hand is only good 1/3 times your implied odds are -.666BB when you catch them. sometimes he will continuation bluff of course so lets just say your implied odds are -.5BB instead.
4(2)+ 6(-.5)=5. 5/10 = .5
so your net implied odds is +.5BB
therefore youre getting 7.5:1 odds on a 6 outter which is more than enough.
there will also be times when MP checks down his hand on the river and your KQ UI holds up, but the fact that UTG is still in this hand and may actually have an ace or may checkraise more than mitigates this.
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