Re: Obsession with value bets (Warning: Long)
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If you hold the absolute nuts in your hand, you would want to bet the absolute most into the pot that your opponent would possibly call, and not one penny less.
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this isn't really right. according to this, if there is a 50% chance villain will call 900 chips and a 99% chance he'll call 800, then i should bet 900 because my opponent could "possibly call."
your EV on a bet of size x is:
EV(bet x) = x * probability villain calls
(ignores c/r's). you want to find the value of x that maximizes EV. very different from betting the maximum that has some chance of being called.
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Thanks for the proofread, I need to remove the word possibly. The point of that whole paragraph there is to say 'if I had a telepathy, and knew with certainty that he would call exactly 900 chips but would fold to 901 (100% of the time) then I should be 900'. I stated the principle wrong and it can be confusing, thanks for pointing that out.
-Rizen
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