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Old 12-06-2005, 03:52 PM
schwza schwza is offline
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Join Date: Apr 2003
Posts: 113
Default Re: Obsession with value bets (Warning: Long)

[ QUOTE ]
If you hold the absolute nuts in your hand, you would want to bet the absolute most into the pot that your opponent would possibly call, and not one penny less.

[/ QUOTE ]

this isn't really right. according to this, if there is a 50% chance villain will call 900 chips and a 99% chance he'll call 800, then i should bet 900 because my opponent could "possibly call."

your EV on a bet of size x is:

EV(bet x) = x * probability villain calls

(ignores c/r's). you want to find the value of x that maximizes EV. very different from betting the maximum that has some chance of being called.
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