Re: A preflop question
Wow. You guys really think this is such an obvious fold?
Lets assume a few things using the party 15/30 as an example (Because I like to assume):
1. Lets assume that there will be one more cold caller between you and the blinds, and one of the blinds is gonna tag along. This isn't that far fetched, as people LOVE to cold call once its started. Especially those 45/5's.
2. Total pot going to the flop of $135 or so. So, you are obviously getting far from good odds to call preflop if we KNOW that he has AA. But, in situations like this, it can easily be assumed that the final pot value is going to be atleast 10-15BB.
3. You are going to win probably 90% of the 11.8% that you flop a set.
So, you are CC'ing $30 for the 10% chance to win $300+ pot (And many times more than that if somoene really does have AA). While you will contribute probably 1/4th the pot.
It would appear that you would have to think you could build a $400+ pot if you KNEW he had AA, and you KNEW a few people were going to CC behind.
Ok, I'm too lazy to delete this, I'll have to come back later. Maybe I'm swinging away from CC'ing, even though I do exactly that right now.
Nick
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