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Old 12-06-2005, 11:58 AM
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Default Re: $109 Party Hand - Trip Jacks vs. another big stack on river

Villain's call on the turn is somewhat peculiar, given the club draw and outside straight draw on the board. I think you can rule out a set, as it is perfectly reasonable to think you have have "Ac" and he would probably raise here. Did he make his flush? Probably not, as he would have to worry about "A - Qc" at this point, and would probably raise again to protect his hand on the turn. It's possible that given his reputation as an aggro player and a read that you have top pair, he's counting on you to bet on the river and then go over the top, pretending to have air.
Not entirely unreasonable, especially from someone with a "devil may care" attitude who is not willing to sacrifice value in light of the possibility of another club.

All things considered, I like checking with a reasonable expectation of a bet by Villain, followed by a call. The "J" on the river is significant because it may put into villain's mind that you don't have another Jack, as there are already two on the board. Given the play of this hand, Villain will probably bet the pot, giving you a reasonable call with enough chips left if he was trapping. ON THE OTHER HAND, at this point, any bet that you make will seem suspicious, even a 1,000 bet, and may get him to fold on this board. Let the aggro player do the betting for you here; you'll get value if you win and won't lose a lot if he has you beat.
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