[Nick C]

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Thoughts?

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Uh, I don't know. I think it's close.

I've been seeing a fair amount of 3-betting with AQ lately. I don't know how often that hand is getting folded instead, though.

I know it's a crappy flop for AQ, but I can imagine someone peeling with it on the flop. But, yeah, I think we need to discount it. I mean, it shouldn't be easy for Villain to peel with AQ on that flop, versus a preflop capper.

How often will a 5/10 unknown bluff AQ if checked to on the turn? I'm not sure. Certainly not always. Hero has represented a big hand.

I'd rather not give a 6-outer a free look at the river and would probably bet-fold. (And I do think if Villain holds AQ and peeled on the flop with it, he'll most likely fold it now.) But I'm not at all sure bet-folding is best.

We are probably behind, and the chances of this do go up if we check and Villain bets. So I think you make a good case for a turn check-fold.