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Old 12-05-2005, 03:58 PM
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Default Re: Asking for comments on hand

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I agree here. I'm a PLO8 noob, but playing with bottom set and crap low is just asking for trouble in my book. I might have fired off a pot raise on the flop to see where I'm at, but I'd have to treat it as a bluff.

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Potting it on the flop w/ bottom set is a huge mistake. With two to come, bottom set is very susceptible to str, flush, and top two pair draws, and your low is very unlikely to pick up the pot. Wrong time to build a pot.

See what happens on a ~perfect turn card like this one? The obvious flopped low draw (A2) is now counterfeited, giving hero's A6 a chance at low. Also, all str's and flushes missed; a set is now a dominant favorite over these draws, unless they come in a huge unlikely combination (and even then, I think it's coinflippish--easily enough to justify getting all-in w/ pot odds). The possibility of set over set is still a problem, but it was an equal problem on the flop. Sure every once in a while you'll run into A245 with suits that you'll be screwed against, but using range-of-hands analysis, shoving on a sweet turn like this will be +EV, substantially I believe.

Edit: oh I see you were saying this is a bluff. Well, I don't buy it. Are you really going to pot it on the flop with any 4? It's not a bluff...
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