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yikes. after reading your story i'm convinced you could soon wind up in
this thread
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seriously, 20,000 hands is nothing.
if you have a win rate of 2.00bb/100 at 50/100 right now and a 16bb/100hand standard deviation, your win rate could be between 4.217446 and -0.21745 bb/100 with a 95% confidence interval. if your win rate of 20,000 hands has been 1bb/100 hands and the same standard deviation, your win rate could be between 3.217446 and -1.21745 bb/100 with the same confidence interval.
so although you are doing well now, you may not be a winning player at those limits.
just putting it out there b/c daryn is right.
Barron
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thanks, but im already pretty much fully aware of the fact that i could just be running very well, i am prepared to move down if necessary.
i am very confident that i can beat a game like 10/20, and pretty confident that if i choose my tables correctly i can beat the bigger games as well.
the way i see it, as ive said, if i am adaquately bankrolled and my opponents make more mistakes than i do, i have an edge, and if i select my tables properly, my opponents will make more mistakes than i will.
if i end up dropping out of school, i will be working a lot harder on improving my game, so if i have just been lucky i can at least eventually beat these games.
so far i have not had enough time at these limits to play enough hands to find my true win-rate, but i am beating them so far and i really think that if i choose my tables right, i can beat them in the long-run, but i do appreciate your advise, ill keep you guys updated and let you know if i end up going busto.