View Single Post
  #39  
Old 12-05-2005, 09:15 AM
Guest
 
Posts: n/a
Default Re: Textbook wait for turn in huge pot?

I agree that NOT waiting for the turn is the best play.

Waiting for the turn is a VALUE play.

If there is a gutshot out there, we can't protect against it on the flop. Gutshot only holds ~8% equity.
8% equity on the turn is going to be = to about 1BB (8% of 10BB). But if a safe card falls on the turn, Hero's equity will be at ~70%. So 70% of the BB that the GS would have donated is Hero's; making the value in folding out the GS worth roughly .3BB or .6sb.

Hero's equity on the flop is ~60%. So Hero only needs to make an extra 1 sb by raising the flop to exceed the value of waiting for the turn.

Waiting for the turn (as W.Deranges points out) is for hands whose equity is unclear and likely lower.

But the common misconception is that waiting for the turn is to fold Gutshots.
<font color="blue">Yes. Partly. But it is also to fold hands like bottom and middle pair as well. These hands will generally have 5 outs against Hero (1pr hand) and are MORE dangerous to Hero than a 4 out gutshot. For each of these hands folded, Hero's hand will gain in value by ~10% in equity. Well worth the trade off in lost flop value.</font>

<font color="red">People who wait for the turn in this hand and when they have sets - hate money.</font>
Reply With Quote