[vmacosta]

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So, aside from the flop lead, I think Villain's play is all right.

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i guess your hand was too weak to value bet the river?

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If Villain is going to bet the river, it isn't for value, exactly. Villain is not only an underdog if Hero doesn't fold, but Villain is also a substantial underdog at the time when he's making the bet. I don't think Hero will fold a better hand, and if that's the case, Villain is betting hoping to get called by ace-high and also hoping not to get bluff-raised by a Hero who recognizes the check-call, check-call, bet line and wants to try to exploit it.

It's true that Hero will bet his winning hands if checked to (except for maybe JJ and also maybe 99). And, sometimes, Hero won't bet AK himself. But sometimes he will (if the play I've been running into lately is any indication), and in my opinion we're too big of an underdog to make a river bet worthwhile. Aside from opening ourselves up to a bluff-raise, I'm also not entirely sure Hero will call with AK more often than he'll bluff with it if checked to.

If (as Villain) we're going to be aggressive in the hand, I think the place to do so is on the turn. And I think it's a good idea to do so if our read is that Hero is straightforward when facing aggression on the big streets. (But if Hero is the type to take a free card on the turn with AK, then I like a turn check-fold for Villain.)

And, anyway, all of this is assuming a full table. On the actual short table, Hero's range is wider and there's also probably a little more bluffing and semi-bluffing going on. I'm not sure how much we should expand Hero's range, but if we're including the actual AJ, for instance, then maybe the case for a river bet becomes a little stronger. Well, except for this: Will Hero actually call with AJ? Hmm. If we're seeing a showdown, I think I still like check-calling the river.

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This post is well thought out. Thanks.

However, I disagree with my PF range being wider 6max vs. ring game. In fact, only difference woud be I might float a tight raiser with a few more hands in a full game (AJs, AQo, 88, KK, but I'd only do this occasionally anyway). In general, wrong or not, I usually treat UTG 6max similarly to 3 off button full.

As far as river goes, I've given up on the obviously no good A-high call down so you'd see me calling AJ/AK only occasionally and raising even less frequently (something like 5-10%). So in summary:

1) villain is an underdog to my range (AA-88, AK-AQ, AJs, KQs for arguments sake). We also have to severely discount 88 and 99 since I would never have raised the flop with them.

2) villain will occasionally induce a bluff raise out of me but will only very rarely get a weak A-high call out of me.

3) Most people check behind UI high cards on the river most of the time.

Without any math, this seems to argue for a check/fold river line fairly strongly...but of course this line is definitely exploitable if you try it too often.