[Abbaddabba]

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What happens when you check raise? KK,88 will bet all the time. AA will bet maybe half the time. So a cr nets you on average 1.5 BB when ahead. You lose 3 BB when behind. But the ratio of hands is favorable enough that you still come out ahead.

The brilliant part is when you can fold to a 3-bet. Then, when you are ahead you win 2 and when you are behind you lose 2. Compare this to bet/calling which nets you 1 when ahead and loses 2 when behind.


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i dont think that there will ever be a read strong enough to fold for one bet here, absent of him showing his cards face up.

The reason you call the 3bet (which you absolutely must) is because there is a slim chance that he's 3betting with a worse hand, not because you "just gotta".

If he occasionally does this, then you must also account for that in the EV of checkraising, weighted by the probability that it would occur. There are at least some instances where you win 3 bets on the river when checkraising, even if most of the times that you get 3bet, it'll be for a loss of 3 bets.

You can't automatically write off a 3bet as a loss of 3 bets. If it was, you wouldnt be calling... but you are. Why? Because those 3bets arent an automatic write off.

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I included too many ace permutations. If you just include set configurations (discounted 50%), Acx, and QcJc, there are 8 effective hands you are ahead. I still think AJ and AQ are the only likely flushes. Maybe throw in 1 randome hand for donkyness. By this revised calc we would be a 8/3 favorite on the river. Sounds close to correct to me.


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I dont think that J9s, 910s, 10Js, JQs or even 10Qs are incredibly unlikely PF raises from the button with one limper and a poster. We hold the 10 of clubs, so that eliminates 3 of them, but J9 and JQ are not absurd.

I realize that his PFR%age is only 6 after a few hundred hands and that, by the looks of things he's a loose donkish player... but i dont know if i'd discredit any of those from his range of hands, even still.