Re: (LC) $109 bubble - why do people call in this situation?
How bad is this call per ICM? (don't have sngpt, figured someone could give me a # in 1/100th the time I could do it by hand).
Anyway... the more I play these, the more I'm starting to like borderline -$EV plays when my hand is clearly a favorite vs. the pushers range. I feel that even after I make the money (and in this case it will still be the bubble if he calls and wins), I can steal blinds and win pots a lot more easily when I'm the big stack. Sometimes I'm willing to make the risk of busting out at a 40% or whatever rate to get this advantage, even though the immediate risk is obvious.
I don't think I'd make this call, but it's actually really close for me. Especially since if I win, I'd have 2 shorties in the game with me with 4 people left, and there's a good chance I'd be able to make a lot in the next several hands with 750 in blinds each hand.
I wonder if it would be easy to take these considerations into effect, and say "ok, I can make this call even though ICM says the EV is -x% of the prize pool". How low could you make x with blinds this huge, assuming the other players will fold to your future pushes at an 'optimum' frequency?
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