First a little background: I'm in the midst of a 3-week run of negative variance. The decks for me have been so cold, even Jack Frost wears a jacket. Over the past 2700 hands, the big pairs (AA-KK) and AK have not been good to me. Raising them PF has actually been -EV for me (over last 2700 hands AA wins 45%, AK 30%, KK 29%!!!). I'm -15BB with AK, -5BB with KK, and only +3BB with AA. Now I understand variance and I still raise these hands PF, but after the lickin' I've been takin', I'm, well, almost scared to see those cards [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]
Ok, now you know the history, here's what happened last night. Playing at a relatively moderate table. Guy to my right (MP2) is a real solid TAG. Never plays junk. Ever. If he raises PF, you know he's got something. UTG+1 is a lag that is running super hot. He's already busted KK by me earlier with his A-rag. Everything he touches turns to gold. Don't have a lot of history with him, but after 50 hands this sessions, he's 45% VPIP, 15% pfr, 15 AGG. He really likes to play face-xs (K5s, Q5s etc), as well as any 2 face cards, and, of course, Ax. He'll raise/reraise to the river with middle pair or greater, or any draw. MP1 just sat down not too long ago, so I don't have a good read on him. He's played a lot of hands, but folded before the river so I don't know what he's been playing.
PokerStars 0.10/0.20 Hold'em (9 handed)
FTR converter on zerodivide.cx
Preflop: Hero is MP3 with K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">
1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 3-bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 caps</font>, <font color="#666666">
2 folds</font>, Button calls, <font color="#666666">
2 folds</font>, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls.
So it's 4 to me. MP2 is the guy I'm really worried about. 3 going to the flop, and I know that MP2 has TT-AA, AK or AQ (he wouldn't cap with AJ, and I'm not even sure about AQ). I figure UTG+1 for a big pair or any 2 face cards, and MP2 for the same.
So I fold. I just don't see that many outs to draw to. All of the extra kings could be held by the other players, and I know if MP2 hits the flop, he'll raise with UTG+1 re-raising, which means I'm stuck in the middle. As cold as the deck has been for me, I just folded. So would anyone else do the same, or do you always call? Do you ever factor in the "cold-snap" when deciding to make a call?