[me454555]

I'm cold calling this b/c of the semi tight mp player. I call him semi tight b/c even though his stats are 10/5, the sample size really isn't large enough for me to say he's really tight. Add the fact that he's calling 2 cold and I just don't think hes a true 10/5 type of guy. I think he's prolly more like 20/6 or so.

I'd rather not 3 bet here b/c 1) I already have positoin 2) I dont know if my hand is best 3) I can raise a favorable flops vs getting it checked to me in a HUGE pot where I may or may not have hit the flop.

Why are you narrowing his range down to AcJ/Q. He could make this call w/any AJ or AQ b/c he's got a gutshot plus an A out plus the fact that A high might be good. He could also have A9 and other Ax b/c of the weakness shown he might believe his A high is the best hand. We're not too concered about the other Ax b/c we already beat them but I think the bigger question is what hands do you think he calls 2 cold and then checks both the flop and turn with?

My range of hands for him that we are concerned about are 33, 44, 66-99, AJ, AQ, A9. I'm not including other 2 club hands and hands like QJ b/c we already beat them and they likely won't call the river bet so we win the same amount by betting or checking.

Assuming he will never fold a pair but will always fold A high we have

12 combos of AQ, 12 of AJ, 9 of A9 but since we only win half the pot when we check, discount that to 4.5 We have a total of 28.5 hands that we win more $ when betting than checking.

We also have 6 cobos of each pair giving us 36 total combos of pair hands. So we lose when betting 36 times vs checking. Since the pot is 5.5 sbs, I think betting might be the way to go. As an asside I feel that I can discount some of the pairs even more b/c he would prolly be bettint the turn w/them but I don't feel its too important in the analysis here.