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Old 12-04-2005, 03:49 AM
BWebb BWebb is offline
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Join Date: Jul 2004
Posts: 91
Default Re: TP but I cant protect.

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I'd still 3-bet after it two back to me.

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I initially thought this too but after some additional thought I don't like it.

If we are ahead, we are not going to lose anybody (except maybe the BB) with our vulnerable hand. Say UTG+1 is raising here with AK or AQ, we are not going to lose him or any other overcards with our raise. The others already committed 2 sbs to the pot, so 1 more is not going to do the trick. Therefore, our 3-bet is not going to elimate anyone we would like to.

Now, let's say UTG+1 has a real hand and we are behind. Let's look at the best and worst case scenario with our 3-bet:

1) We lose BB, UTG+1 caps and we lose everyone else. It would appear that this is good for us, but I don't think it is. I think this is one of those situations where getting everyone else to fold increases his equity greatly while only effecting ours slightly. Using pokerstove, I ran the following:

Our hand
4 others with any broadway, any pocket pair and any suited. True, a very wide range but I think it's okay.

I then gave UTG the four likely hands we are behind, AA-JJ. (remember, this is assuming we are behind).

This is what I got-

Agaisnt AA, multiway- His equity 45%, Ours 17%
Against AA, heads-up-His equity 77%, ours 22%

KK, multiway-42/11
KK heads-up-87/13

QQ, multiway-37/18
QQ, heads-up-75/25

JJ, multiway-83/4
JJ, heads-up-96/4

Overall versus those hands, our equity increases from 15% to 20% while his increases from 44% to 80%!

The pot would have to be 40 sbs for the 5% increase to equal our extra 2 sbs invested. Obviously, it is not.

Scenario #2) Our 3-bet doesn't lose anyone. Either UTG caps the flop or raises or donk-bet on the turn, but nobody goes anywhere. We spend an additional 2-3 sbs then we had to when we are drawing to 6.5 outs.

Either way, I don't think our raise helps us when we are ahead or behind. If I am mistaken in any of this, please let me know.
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