[peritonlogon]

yeah... I don't know how I got so off with the str8 outs confused myelf... however...21 (9 flush+ 6 strait+ 6 overs)is the right number... The reason why your rule 2 comes close is that 46 unseen is close to 50, and 2*50=100 which is your % and 4 is close because, in a lower # out spots doubling your outs is a reasonable approximation (it gets absurd the more outs you get, imagine 2 ducks vs JsTs on a board of 8h8s9s, JsTs outs = 9 flushes +6str8+6overs+ 3 9s for 24 outs... 24*4= 96 24-1 favorite.... which is not your chances of winning, they're closer to 75% or 3-1 favorite).

In stud the # of deads cards is not constant nor is the # of unseen constant. In stud, by 6th st, you could have as many as 4board cards*8players=32+2hole cards=34 (52-34=18 unseen), or as few as 4*2=8+2=10 (52-10=42 unseen) in a heads up match. But it gets even more complex because, sometimes someone will have one of the cards you need and KNOW it, and often you can figure out that they know and therefore that you have fewer outs. And sometimes you have to assume that the J that called has another one, which either hurts or helps your hand's chances (either by affecting your drawing odds or by padding the pot).

Also, in stud you need to be very aware of your effective odds. You may think i've got a 3-1 shot to win and the pot is offering me 7-1, but really it can be offering you less than 2-1 in effective odds. Which can be much less in stud than in holdem due to the extra betting round which in stud can sometimes contain 4 bb betting rounds.

Another important part of stud is you have to think of the chances of your had winning instead of the chances of making your draw... there are times when a flush draw may be behind but is the favorite, and times when it is drawing dead or really really slim. There are also times when a hand has many more ways to win than it's primary draw, ex. pairing overcard(s), backing into another draw or just looking really scarry and thus becoming a steal hand.

As you can see, an ABC approach to drawing hands is not really possible.