Re: TT prays for a good turn card and gets...
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This represents a very modest equity edge.
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No it isn't. You're putting one bet in the pot while others are putting 3 in. Yeah, you could be out drawn. But you ignoring when you win. Because you have an equity edge, you win more for every bet that goes into the pot.
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The equity edge is very modest. If there are 4 extra SBs put in the pot by my re-raise (I must include my own bet), then my "share" is about 2 SB assuming I go to showdown (1 SB profit). If there is no more betting and we go to showdown, I stand to win 1 SB extra as a result of my 3-bet.
But there are future rounds of betting. I expect to fold on the turn about 1/3 of the time and I might need to fold the river another 15% of the time (it's very hard for me to pay off a river donk, especially if there are overcards, or if the board pairs, or if there's a 4-straight). This means that 48% of the time, I forfeit my 1 SB investment AND my 1 SB profit.
EV of 3-betting and going to showdown: +1 SB * 52%
EV of 3-betting and not going to showdown: -1 SB * 48%
EV = .04 SB
This is a very modest gain.
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