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  #10  
Old 12-03-2005, 05:47 PM
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Default Re: AQ UTG on the bubble

You need to accumulate chips and I think you have to push this. You won't need position after the flop since your AI anyway. You got 9 people left behind you to act. What hands do you think will call you? Well the ones that have you in bad shape are AA (3), KK (6), QQ (3), AK (12). And I think theres 1326 combinations total. So, 24/1326 multiplied by 9 = about 16%. If you threw in pairs of JJ-88 that would be exactly twice as many combinations making it 32% but these hands might fold still fearing the bubble. Your chip stack is too low to pass up this equity considering your equity against the range I mentioned above is 24% against the 16% category and 34% against the lower pocket pairs added (32%) but 88 and 99 will have a tough time making that call especially on the bubble. You have a lot of FE here and can't afford to lose out on those chips.

From an EV standpoint it looks like this.... (i'll use a range of TT+,AK,AKs)

9 x (36/1326) = 24.4 so.... 25% (meaning you get called)
9 x (1290/1326) = 74.6 so.. 75% (everyone folds)

Now against that range mentioned above your equity is roughly 31.5%.

Your stack size is 5000 and if you get called and the blinds fold we'll say this pot is 11,200.

you win 1200 75% of the time
you win 11,200 31.5% (of 25%) of the time
you lose 5,000 68.5% (of 25%) of the time

.75(1200) + .25(.315 x 11,200) + .25(.685 x -5,000)
900 + 882 - 856 = + $926
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