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Old 12-03-2005, 02:56 PM
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Default Re: Value bet the river here?

He calls 2 more with A6 os from BB out of position, I think he calls this flop with top pair. I think your raise on the flop wouldn't have pushed him out.

If I look at the hand, I think this play is not too bad. The flop is completely drawless and we have a guy who capped preflop betting into us, his hand range for capping only beats us with AA, which there is only one combination of. He draws with us with AK 6 times, but he also loses with KK, QQ, AQs and JJ. If we raise here after re-raising him preflop he may get rid of KK, QQ, JJ but may only call with AQs. If we just call this flop we can bring BB along and also get MP2 to hopefully keep betting this for us.

I am not sure if my thinking is correct here, but we have the best hand almost 100% of the time here on the flop with not much chance for our opponents to improve (2/3 outs). IF Mp2 will continue to bet this on the turn with KK / QQ etc and he has only 2 outs of equity, (approximately 4.5% of equity) the pot is currently 6.25BB and if you and BB call the flop it will be 7.75BB. He has only 0.4BB in equity but may put 2BB in on the turn.

I am not sure if my thinking is correct here, but surely we can lose 0.4BB of equity if our MP2 will bet the turn here more than 20% of the time?

Am I right here or way off?
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