Numeri,

I'm going back and forth on this one.

I understand your pot equity analysis, and it looks solid (my post-grunch bet recommendation based on equity w/14-15 outs was not right BTW for anyone reading this, b/c of a mathematical miscalculation).

But, is it solely a pot equity analysis that determines how we play it here? The concept I'm thinking about is protecting draws and buying outs in a large pot (i.e., in a large pot, getting a few % points increase in our ability to win is valuable). In other words, if we miss our flush draw will a turn bet be worthwhile anyhow in order to buy outs in the event we make a pair? Is that not applicable here because we're not getting Kings to fold?