[numeri]

Interesting. I'm still don't think that it's +EV, but that doesn't mean I can't be convinced otherwise.

Chance of getting a Straight Flush on the flop: 0.01%
Chance of getting 4-of-a-kind on the flop: 0.01%
Chance of getting a Full House on the flop: 0.09%
Chance of getting a Flush on the flop: 0.84%
Chance of getting a Straight on the flop: 0.32%
Chance of getting 3-of-a-kind on the flop: 1.57%
Chance of getting 2 Pair on the flop: 3.03%

Chance of getting a Four Flush on the flop: 10.94%
Chance of getting 1 Pair on the flop: 28.96%

The last two mean we'd have to keep drawing, so we'll weight them by how often the draws come in. The flush comes in ~35%, so (0.1094)(0.35) = 0.038 = 3.8%. The pair improves to trips or 2pr about 20% of the time, so (0.2896)(0.2) = 0.058 = 5.8%

If we add those up, we get around 15.5%, or around 5.5:1 odds. Since many of those hands won't hold up even if we hit, and we'll have to fold the flop or turn sometimes, I think the implied odds we have for the hidden hand aren't enough.

Again, I could be convinced. Am I missing anything important?