Re: Final hand. A fun one.
To everyone who likes the turn bet...
Do we think we have the best hand? If so what %?
What are the chances of being check raised? What are the chances of winning the pot with a turn bet.
Here are my answers.
1. I don't think we are ahead here more than 2% of the time. Too many calling stations with a couple cards in the playing zone.
2. I don't think we take it down with a turn bet very often at all. I think most of the time, some sort of pair calls us and we have to rely on our outs. (I think we have 9 flush outs, 4 straight outs discounted because it's a one card straight and potentially a split out, and 1.5 outs for the aces - total 14.5 outs which is about 31%ish equity?)
So if we are getting called most of the time, what % are we going to get check raised? Well your image is good so you will be check raised less. But the flop is really bad since a K high uncoordinated board where you get 4 callers makes it very likely that you are up against a pair and somewhat likely that you are up against a K. There is always a chance someone is slowplaying kings up or a set. People always say it's not a bad thing if the turn goes bezerk when you have such a good draw but I'm sure the EV is less compared to checking the turn given the opportunity. One more point in favor of not worrying about a check raise is the most likely player to check raise is the LAG on your right. A check raise by him will do the least damage as the callers in between will be trapped.
Conclusion? I don't think the turn is a clear cut bet. With two cards to come I think it would be hard to argue with an open-ended straight flush draw but on the turn against 3 opponents that called a flop bet on a king high uncoordinated board, I think you have to at least call it sorta close. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]
If you told me the calling stations would call the turn 90% of the time or that they would fold anything but kings to a turn bet, or that people routinely call the flop with 2 uncoordinated undercards I would say it's an easy bet too.
Krishan
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