[Jeff W]

[ QUOTE ]
definite FPS. Bet the flop. On the river MP1 isn't folding a better hand, and it's very unlikely UTG has anything. What pair hand do you think UTG is likely to have played here that makes you so eager to move him off it?

[/ QUOTE ]

I definitely missed a flop bet. I realized that after the hand.

On the river, I think it is likely that UTG has nothing and I think it is also likely that MP1 has nothing. However, UTG is a loose player and could have picked up a pair at some point and checked it down because of the scary board.

Assuming calling is correct, then I need to satisfy the following parlay to make a check-raise correct:

[/ QUOTE ]
P(A)*P(B)=1/10.25=.098~.1 where P(A)=Probability that MP1 has a worse hand and P(B)=Probability that UTG has and folds a better hand.

[/ QUOTE ]
Thus, if MP1 has a worse hand 1/2 the time, then I only need UTG to fold a better hand 1/5 times for a checkraise to be successful. These are arbitrary values, but they provide a baseline for thinking about how often I need to succeed for the checkraise to be correct in a pot this size.

Please inform me if my math is faulty.