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Old 12-03-2005, 04:25 AM
Harv72b Harv72b is offline
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Join Date: Nov 2004
Location: Baltimore, MD
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Default Re: I suck hard at blind vs. blind battles

I do not like a turn 3-bet at all. Consider the possible holdings that a halfway normal player would take this line with, as the big blind:

1) flopped monster goes for the delayed raise. It's entirely possible that villain could call preflop with 64, 33, or even 55 here. Besides possible 2-pair hands, of course. In this case, Hero is likely playing into a turn cap, which gets really tricky in this situation.

2) the jack helped him. Hero's 8 kicker ain't that hot, even in a blind battle, considering the unknown status of the villain. Most people aren't going to bother calling the flop bet with jack high unless they have two overcards or some kind of draw to go with it; if he is holding two overcards to the flop and the jack hit him, then the best Hero can hope for is a chop with another J8. If he called the flop bet with a hand like J6 or J4 and his gutshot draw, then you might be giving up a bet by just calling vs. 3-betting. But since there are more jack combinations which are comfortably ahead of Hero than behind, I don't see the value in a 3-bet if this is the case.

3) A total bluff with air. He then probably folds to a 3-bet, when he would often have bet again on the river if Hero just calls the raise and checks the river. A small percentage of the time he catches a single overcard to beat Hero's top pair, a few more times he gives up and checks through the river, but I have to think that Hero makes more money by inducing the river bluff here. We are, of course, assuming that an unknown is even capable of a bluff raise on the turn.

4) delayed turn raise on a semibluff or lower than top pair, aimed at inducing a fold from Hero. Again, even in a 5/10 blind battle, I wouldn't assume that an unknown is going to try this often enough to consider it.

Frankly, I think the turn action is pretty obvious. It's the question of whether to check/call or bet/fold the river that is closer, IMO, though I lean towards check/call for the informational value that I gain from showdown, as well as the possibility that MHIG.
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