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Old 11-12-2003, 09:22 PM
Bozeman Bozeman is offline
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Join Date: Sep 2002
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Default Re: Calling a preflop raise with KK, math

First, I calculated approximate EV (flushes can make some difference here, but I tried to estimate proper averages over available configurations) (results are good to at least +- 0.05) for a few possible holdings/styles from which we can see the extremes: (EV is for x=y=1, and O EV point is leaving with y left, as in calling then folding)
Assuming you know your opps. cards:

Against AJ (similar for almost all Ax) which will be played aggressively (you can count on all the money going in on the flop, regardless):
Call: EVA1c=1.36
Raise(call): EVAr=1.1
Raise(fold): EVf=1 for all cases

Against QQ (similar for all non AA, KK pp's) played aggressively
Call: EVC1c=1.57
Raise(call): EVBr=1.46
(he folds is still EVf=1)

Against AJ played weak-tight (he will push in only if he flops A or J)
Call: EVA3c=0.92
Raise(call): EVAr=1.1

Against QQ played WT (will push iff he has an overpair or better on flop)
Call: EVC2c=1.31
Raise(call): EVBr=1.46

However, the chance that he will play such that you can tell whether he has AK or a pocket pair is tiny, so the best case for calling is when you can put him on Ax, and only be wrong some of the time. If you put him on Ax,
you should make:

Against AJ Ag:
EVA1c=1.36
EVAr=1.1
AJ WT:
EVA3c=0.92
EVAr=1.1
Against QQ Ag:
EVB1c=1.14
EVBr=1.46
Against QQ WT:
EVB3c=1.21
EVBr=1.46
Against AA
Call: EVDc=-0.37
Raise: EVDr=-0.44

Ok, so can we apply these to anything closer to real poker?

What kind of opponents could we have?
1) Aggressive, will always bet the flop
2) Aggressive, will put you on AK unless he also has an A and an A flops
3) PP aggressive, will play Ax WT
4) WT, will play very tight, passive
5) Ax aggressive, will play QQ WT
(I have ranked these according to my rough idea of their probability)

A few reasonable sets of hands
a) is playing this way with QQ,JJ,AK,AQ,KK, and AA
b) is playing 99-AA,AK,AQs
I have neglected KK since it is unlikely and even (and it makes the math easier since I then have 36 possible hands for each case).

With the possible caveat that there are a few granite specimens who will fold everything but AA,KK to a preflop rereraise (fairly unlikely, I would say), for whom EVr(granite)=0.79 if they have a or b for their reraise.

For these cases, assuming you play him for an A,
a) EVr=0.98
1a EVc=1.05
2a EVc=1.04
3a EVc=0.80
4a EVc=0.81
5a EVc=1.07

b) EVr=1.09
1b EVc=0.98
2b EVc=1.02
3b EVc=0.86
4b EVc=0.90
5b EVc=1.03

Not as definitive as I'd hoped,
Craig
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