[tshort]

Months ago I ran simulations regarding the steps. I couldn't find the post, but I just ran the script for the numbers I had in there for mini-steps. I don't believe anyone has any significant data for finish distributions, so I assumed the following:

Mini-Steps Finish Distributions
Number in parentheses is the step you will move onto followed by the probability of moving onto that step.

Step 1
(2): .20
(1): .50
(Out): .20

Step 2
(3): .30
(2): .36
(1): .32
(Out): .02

Step 3
(4): .26
(3): .24
(2): .22
(1): .21
(Out): .7

Step 4:
(5): .25
(4): .36
(3): .22
(2): .10
(1): .07
(Out): .00

I assume the expected return per step 5 played is $450 (.11, .11, .11, .105, .10 distribution).

If you buy into 100,000 step 2s and disregard step 1s, you will expect to play 8067 step 5s. You will expect to play a total of 302,300 tournaments.

Your profit per tournament played will be around $4.75. I don't think the best player could make over $5.50 per tournament played. If you buy-in to step 3, play step 2 freerolls, and disregard step 1 freerolls you can make about $7.75 per tournament played. You will have much higher variance playing the steps. I believe my assumptions would mirror very good finish distributions, so you would probably make less than the numbers I've generated. In general, I think you are much worse off playing the steps.

-tshort