Re: 15/30 - To 3-bet or not to 3-bet?
[ QUOTE ]
I think you are WAY overvaluing the probability that a non-flush will give this much action. The idea that you are a huge favorite on the river is pretty far off if experience is any guide. It's a rare player who will cap the flop and the turn without a huge hand.
-eric
[/ QUOTE ]
I included too many ace permutations. If you just include set configurations (discounted 50%), Acx, and QcJc, there are 8 effective hands you are ahead. I still think AJ and AQ are the only likely flushes. Maybe throw in 1 randome hand for donkyness. By this revised calc we would be a 8/3 favorite on the river. Sounds close to correct to me.
I agree 6/1 was too favorable. Thanks for chiming in! I'm glad you like a check/call over a bet/call.
Krishan
|