[grb137]

[ QUOTE ]
Since it's a 6-handed pot, any equity above .166 means Hero is winning if it's an all-in. So at worst, hero is a small dog according to your calculations.

[/ QUOTE ]

If by "winning" you mean there's a positive expectation, then you'd be right...too bad it's not "all-in" on 3rd. If by "small dog" you mean there's a negative expectation, I would agree as well. I don't care how small the negative expectation, if its negative, you don't want to play it. I think you may be confusing the probably of winning the pot (i.e. whether or not you're a dog) with the profitability of trying to win the pot (i.e. whether or not its profitable to play despite being a dog.)

[ QUOTE ]
However, I dislike this sort of analysis. I don't like it in Hold'em and I really don't think it's very good for stud. The reason is that you're playing a game with many streets of betting to come, and so the question of whether you should play is one of mostly implied odds.
A better analysis of this situation would seem to be to look at the equity on 4th street after various card combinations fall. If most of the time, equity goes down, then hero is in a situation of strong reverse implied odds (putting money in the pot leads to situations where hero is expected to continue to lose) and a fold is prudent. If it stays mostly constant except it goes up in a few special cases (perhaps any card 5-7), then it's a situation of strong implied odds and folding is wrong.

I don't have the time to play on twodimes right now, so hopefully I'll remember to look into it later if free time becomes available.

[/ QUOTE ]

I probably wasn't clear in my post about why I was posting the twodimes scenarios. I agree with you on the issues of implied and reverse impied odds. In my opinion, the implied odds are very poor because pairingthe door 6 early (which is what most people hope for when they peel one off here) would be a major scare card, and you'd probably get very little worthwhile action.

However, showdown simulations are nevertheless good for giving you a ballpark feel for the relative strength of the hands. This is why 7CSFAP has such simulations in the back - to give you a feel of how relatively good, bad, or marginal your hand is. And indeed, the closer to the river you run these type of simulations, the more valuable they become.

BTW, this hand is more accurately considered *five* way since the BI probably doesn't have a playable hand and won't be contributing any further money beyond the BI. That being said, you need a .20 equity in the pot for your "all-in" scenario to be profitable.

In the scenarios that I consider most likely, you have pretty poor EV of .171 at best. When you compare this EV to that of good starting hands (3 to lows with good str8 and/or flush possibilities or highest pairs), you realize it just isn't worth the money, even when your ante is high as scags' scenario that he asked for my opinion on.