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Please tell me why I am wrong and remind me why I don't bet on sports.
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I like Detroit strictly because their computer numbers match up favorably.
Computer A
Computer B
If a line looks too good to be true, and the book KNOWS every public bettor will bet on it, then why are they still okay making it available? The short answer is that the public is wrong. The public's side does not have an edge, and in fact, the other side may well have an edge.
There is no free money in the NFL. There have been a number of games this year where everyone in the world has said something like, "Oh man! NO WAY does Detroit cover this against Minnesota!" These are known as the Bar Stool Pundits, or BSP's.
And so far this year, betting against the BSP's in these BSP games has been incredibly profitable. Like more profitable than you would believe. It started off something like 13-1.