Re: AA raise the river?
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hey Mark, long time no see. I don't think you can totally dismiss QT, but the thing is not many people would 3bet QT from the BB. And of those who would, a lot (probably most) would not donk it on the flop. This parlay is why I would discount it a lot. I think the donk with OESD is especially unlikely if BB is a decent player. Additionally, the T on the river makes it 25% less likely he holds QT.
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Yah, I've been out of town for most of November. I agree with what you have said, but I think QTs is a possibility here. 21/14 seems agressive enough to occasionally 3-bet QTs... I would do it - albeit very rarely. You are also right about the donk bet being strange by a good player on that flop.
I just think Red Rain was being a bit too dismissive. But, in hind sight it does seem less likely than even I originally thought. My post was a knee jerk rejaction to something that I thought was being too dismissive... serves me right for not playing a hand in three weeks or so.
I would not have found a raise on the river here.
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