[krishanleong]

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I'd guess a river cr/fold to 3-bet has a greater EV than bet/call.

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Bad line. He's betting everything and raising only hands that beat you. Check call is better than bet/call.

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Hmm.. could you explain your thinking here? I had relatively little reads on the villain at the time, other than the PT stats. If the villain was willing to cap the turn without the nuts, might he be willing to 3-bet the river without them as well? I understand that 0.8 AF is pretty low, but not so much for a 45 VPIP. There's also the occassional "passive" donk, who will raise the entire way donk with "monsters" (ie. set+), regardless of the board.

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Well folding to a 3-bet part only applies if Villian is predictable and known. I think calling the 3-bet is a must in this scenerio as other posters pointed out.

First the hand reading. He raises preflop. As far as suited aces that rules out some of the weaker ones. Lots of pairs/big aces.

On the flop Villian caps the flop. Some players would cap the flop with a draw but not all. Some players would cap the flop with a set, but some would wait till the turn to raise on a BB street. So flop action makes me lean just a little towards a set/two pair/made hand. Though some people push draws, not near as many cap a draw HU. (3-way sure).

On the turn it goes 4 bets quick. Everyone will go 4 bets with the flush. Only some will go 4 bets with a set. KK or 88 are both consistent with Villians play. AA with Ac also could still be in the range. I do think the turn leans the read toward a flush.

To figure out the river decision, I count hands.

We are ahead of

KK, 6 ways
88, 6 ways
AA, 12 ways?
Total 24 ways.

We are behind AcJc and AcQc. I'm discounting all the other flushes significantly because of the preflop raise.

Even if we discount the sets/AA hands 50% (which I think is overdoing it) we are still ahead of 12 and behind only 2. (6-1 in our favor).

So if you agree so far, you are trying to get more bets in the pots because you have dominant equity. What happens if you lead. KK,88,AA will call very often. Only once in a while will they raise. So you basically win close to 1 bet. The nut flush will raise, costing you 2 bets.

What happens when you check raise? KK,88 will bet all the time. AA will bet maybe half the time. So a cr nets you on average 1.5 BB when ahead. You lose 3 BB when behind. But the ratio of hands is favorable enough that you still come out ahead.

The brilliant part is when you can fold to a 3-bet. Then, when you are ahead you win 2 and when you are behind you lose 2. Compare this to bet/calling which nets you 1 when ahead and loses 2 when behind.

Krishan