Re: Interesting hand from the Bellagio 2k tournament
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I think its a bad idea to put 1/4 of your stack in with a marginal hand with the idea of folding to subsequent action.
Here are my crude combat ready calculations:
There are 40 hands you are afraid of: (ak,aq,aa-jj) (12,12,18) probably less if you credit UTG for 1/2 an ace or so.
time 8 players left to act = 320 hands/1300 hands ~ 25% of the time you are called and dominated.
If you can fold out AQ then you are called and dominated only 30X8=240/1300 ~18% of the time.
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This is a little off. Multiplying 40 x # of players left will give you a decent estimate but it's on the high side.
But there are fewer hand than you said so that balances it back up a little. 1225 (50*49/2) possible hands from 50 remaining cards. The odds no one has one of the 40 dominating hands is
(1185/1225) ^ 8 = 76.7% ----> 23.3% that someone has you dominated.
Edit: Of course you can't do this one in your head at the table... I think the point is to realize that when you do a rough estimate your way you end up a little high... similar to the outs calculation where you multiply by 4 for your equity.
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