[jedinite]

[ QUOTE ]
I think I may have been misunderstanding this trend. Could someone please clarify for me?

[/ QUOTE ]

To put it simply for those following along, the condition is:

Look for an unranked team playing at home who is favored to win over a ranked team.

What NoChance is saying in his thread, is that the "real" line for this unranked home favorite should be -5 and the heavy public money coming down on the side of their ranked underog opponent drives the line down to -2 or -3 and as such there is value on the opposite side of the line.

Per NoChance's thread, most people believe the exact condition is that the line opens with the unranked home team as a favorite, but some people will play if the line moves to favor the unranked home team even if they started as an underdog or a pick'em.